In 2013, the Chinese electric vehicle market continued to grow with sales steadily exceeding 30 million units. With the new national standard about to be released, most electric vehicle enterprises kept an optimistic view of the 2014 market. On the one hand, major manufacturers accelerated the implementation of their strategies; on the other hand, they increased efforts in models, production, sales and marketing to win more market share. So in 2014, what deserves the attention of enterprises?
Lead-acid or lithium: which is the flagship product of enterprises?
 At present, the production of lithium electric bicycles in China is mainly concentrated in Tianjin, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Guangdong. The four regions account for 86% of the total output, with Tianjin 32%, Jiangsu 24%, Zhejiang 21%, Guangzhou 9% and others 14%. Almost all large electric bicycle manufacturers have entered the lithium electric bicycle business. However, due to the relatively high price of lithium models, the market is still dominated by lead-acid power, and lithium products remain in the awkward situation of winning praise but poor sales.
According to authoritative data, the total annual output value of the electric vehicle industry grew by 1.4% in 2013, but the share of simple models dropped obviously. Luxury models represented by Taizhou, Wuxi and other places were clearly more popular with the market, and the total output of luxury models rose by more than 20%. Luxury models can be said to be the development trend of 2014, but their characteristics are strong power, long mileage and heavy weight, which current lithium batteries cannot satisfy, and the performance of lithium batteries cannot meet the requirements of luxury models either. So before lithium battery technology matures and meets the basic needs of luxury models, the position of lead-acid batteries remains firm.
Generally speaking, lead-acid electric vehicles will still be the flagship products of enterprises in 2014. Considering market demand and price, lithium cannot meet the needs of luxury models, while luxury models are the future trend. Although lithium electric vehicles have a bright future, it is difficult for them to shake the position of lead-acid batteries in the short term.
When will the new national standard lift the veil?
Since the first half of 2013, reports said the new national standard would be released in October; then at the Nanjing Show the industry association said it would come out by the end of 2013; a month later some news said it would be issued before the two sessions in 2014; and the Tianjin Bicycle and Electric Vehicle Association said it would be promulgated no earlier than 2014. Nobody gave an exact date. The repeated delay of the new national standard is not because the standard itself is difficult to formulate or grasp; the tug-of-war among various parties is the main reason. When interviewing the head of a Tianjin enterprise about whether and when the standard would come out in 2014, the answer was that its release next year would probably be met with a big question mark, and the timetable of the new national standard looks like it will keep being dragged out.
The impact of the new national standard on enterprises is self-evident. Luxury models and their manufacturers will be hit hardest. In particular, limits on vehicle weight will affect the type and amount of frame materials used in production design, and further affect the safety performance of vehicles. For many enterprises, whether, how and with what consequences the new standard will be released is not what they are considering now. Being unable to resist a regulation, they can only adapt to it and live with it, which is the mindset of many enterprises toward the new national standard.
How will battery enterprises cope with industry adjustment?
If 2012 was the year when the state strengthened the rectification of the lead-acid battery industry and raised the entry threshold, then 2013 was a life-and-death test for lead-acid battery enterprises in a major reshuffle. In May 2013, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Environmental Protection jointly issued the Access Conditions for the Lead-Acid Battery Industry, stipulating that the production of cadmium-containing lead-acid batteries would be banned after December 31, 2013, and new, rebuilt or expanded projects must not use external formation processes. The approaching era of cadmium-free and internal formation is a severe test for the whole lead-acid battery industry still trapped in vicious competition. At present, lead-acid battery enterprises are expanding rapidly after mergers. With capacity ballooning to about twice the market demand, oversupply is obvious, price wars continue and vicious competition is hard to cool down. As the countdown begins for the implementation of the access conditions, a short-term supply shortage is expected for lead-acid batteries next year.
Many enterprises that fail to meet the environmental and lead-related mandatory requirements, and cannot withstand the fierce market competition, will be forced out of the market. At the same time, because some regions lack effective supervision and are driven by profits, unlicensed small lead-acid battery factories remain active underground, forming a situation in which big brands dominate the market while three-no products still prevail in one corner.
“National environmental requirements are getting higher and higher, and the reshuffle of the battery industry will accelerate. Zhang Tianren, chairman of a leading lead-acid battery enterprise, said in an interview that leading battery enterprises will surely benefit, while many small and medium enterprises unable to survive the fierce competition will come to their doors seeking mergers or cooperation as a helpless choice. After the stormy rectification last year, the battery industry is expected to deepen steadily. But how to stay invincible in fierce competition? That is the first question facing every electric vehicle battery manufacturer in 2014.
Trade shows remain the key arena for enterprises to compete
Looking back at the electric vehicle trade shows of 2013, enterprises kept increasing their investment and booths became ever more magnificent. The customized decorations at the shows were original: exhibiting brands made heavy use of LED, lighting and imaging, with clearly more technological elements. At the Nanjing Show alone, one brand built an exquisite 4D pavilion, another created a charming coffee house, and a third turned a 500-square-meter booth into a closed magic box. While strengthening core competitiveness, enterprises also paid growing attention to corporate culture and image.
Attention to trade shows and heavier investment show that the strength of enterprises, especially large-scale manufacturers in the industry, is clearly improving. Trade shows are the most effective way for enterprises to present their image, launch new products and raise awareness. 2014 will remain a fiercely competitive year, and to stand out at trade shows, enterprises still need to think on their feet and come up with innovative solutions.
TV advertising marketing is booming
With the popularity of variety shows, more and more enterprises were willing to sponsor programs to raise brand awareness and reputation. Previously, a leading electric vehicle brand paid a sky-high 40 million to sponsor the show Wu Shuang Tian Xia, and another brand invested 50.5 million to sponsor China Dream Show, setting the highest TV sponsorship record in the industry at that time. In addition, a number of other brands followed one after another, and TV sponsorship became a trend in the industry.
WeChat and e-commerce become the mainstream of development
The strong performance of the WeChat interaction platform in 2013 won wide recognition of its future prospects, making it the preferred promotional platform for more and more enterprises. Electric vehicle enterprises are also advancing briskly on the road of WeChat marketing, and the communication and interaction effects cannot be underestimated. The public platform of WeChat is widely favored by enterprises, and the rapid spread of its influence and functions also makes people look forward to its communication energy in 2014.
Tmall and Taobao together sold over 35 billion yuan in a single day on Double Eleven, creating an incredible sales volume and new e-commerce history. The rapid development of e-commerce in recent years has already brought substantial profits to enterprises. In 2014, quite a few enterprises want to expand channels through e-commerce. Many well-known brands said they would invest more in e-commerce platforms in 2014. E-commerce will apparently become another battleground for electric vehicle enterprises in 2014.
Electric tricycles and four-wheelers remain in a rising demand period 
In 2013, the number of electric tricycles and four-wheelers in China exceeded the mark of 10 million, and the output of electric tricycles and four-wheelers this year equals the combined output of the previous two years. This shows that the growth of electric tricycles and four-wheelers has entered a period of rapid rise.
Electric tricycles and four-wheelers saw explosive growth in the rural market. To transport crops more conveniently, a large number of farmers chose to buy electric tricycles and four-wheelers. At the same time, with the rapid development of e-commerce, these vehicles play a logistics role and further boost their sales. Their wide use in urban-rural fringe areas and cities, such as carrying passengers, short-distance freight and small business, also contributed to the substantial growth of electric tricycles and four-wheelers in 2013.
Products are moving towards differentiation and intelligence
At the present stage, industry development attaches growing importance to technological innovation and product improvement. Especially for big brands, as the industry structure becomes clearer, competition has become fiercer while enterprises strengthen core competitiveness and seek to broaden development space and brand strength. Tracing the product development of 2013, we can clearly see that enterprises are investing more and more in product innovation.
2013 has become the past, and 2014 is a key year for the transformation and upgrading of the industry. A smokeless war has quietly begun. The above are only our predictions for the electric vehicle market in 2014. How the industry will actually change still needs to be verified by time. In 2014, let us wait and see.